World Test Championship Final: Qualification scenarios for India, Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka
The race for the upcoming World Test Championship final is getting interesting, with 18 matches remaining in this edition. Australia are currently the table topper, while South Africa hold the second position.
While Australia and South Africa are close to playing the summit clash, the number three and four teams, Sri Lanka and India are also in contention for qualifying. This means that all four teams now have a chance of making it to the finals of WTC. However, it all depends on the results of their respective upcoming matches.
On that note, let’s have a look at the qualification scenarios of Australia, India, Sri Lanka and South Africa.
Australia
Australia are at the top of the table with a points percentage of 75 after 12 matches. They are still not certain of qualifying because if they lose each of their remaining seven matches in this cycle, their percentage will drop to 47.37, and other sides will be benefitted.
But if the Aussies win all three home Tests against South Africa, then they will finish with a minimum percentage of 63.16. In that case, even if Australia lose all four against India, they will still finish at top-two
Australia’s remaining WTC fixtures:
- v South Africa, December 17-21, Brisbane
- v South Africa, December 26-30, Melbourne
- v South Africa, January 4-8, Sydney
- v India, February 2023, TBD
- v India, February 2023, TBD
- v India, March 2023, TBD
- v India, March 2023, TBD
India
India are positioned at fourth on the points table, and if they win each of their remaining six Tests, their percentage will rise to 68.06, which will be enough for a top-two finish. Notably, if this happens, then Australia’s numbers will drop as they lose four to India.
When it comes to another scenario, if India finish with a 5-1 win-loss record, their percentage shall be at 62.5, which will still ensure qualification as both Australia and South Africa can’t go beyond that number. However, if the previous edition’s runners-up end up losing two games, their percentage will drop to 56.94, leaving them relying on other results.
India’s remaining WTC fixtures:
- v Bangladesh, December 14-18, Chattogram
- v Bangladesh, December 22-26, Dhaka
- v Australia, February 2023, TBD
- v Australia, February 2023, TBD
- v Australia, March 2023, TBD
- v Australia, March 2023, TBD
South Africa
South Africa have two series left and are currently second on the points table. They will play three Tests in Australia and two at home against West Indies next year. If the Proteas register victory in their home Tests but lose all their away fixtures, they will drop to 53.33, and their chances of going into the WTC final will be in doubt.
Therefore, if South Africa lose the Test series against Australia by 1-2 but a clean sweep versus West Indies at home, it will take them to 60% and remain in contention.
South Africa’s remaining WTC fixtures:
- v Australia, December 17-21, Brisbane
- v Australia, December 26-30, Melbourne
- v Australia, January 4-8, Sydney
- v West Indies, February 28-March 4, Centurion
- v West Indies, March 8-12, Johannesburg
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka have only two away Tests left and are currently placed in the third spot with a percentage of 53.33%. If they win both, their points will rise to 61.11 and stay in the WTC final race.
Sri Lanka’s remaining WTC fixtures:
- v New Zealand, March 09-13, Christchurch
- v New Zealand, March 17-21, Wellington
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December 14, 2022 at 08:40AM
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